Shares Magazine - Investing is like a beauty parade
03 March 2010
Investing is like a beauty parade (understanding market psychology)
In the aftermath of the crisis investor risk appetite and trading followed a typical behavioural pattern. After a period of funk where time horizons shortened and ultra-safe candidates were preferred - government bonds, blue-chip securities and gold, investors piled in to the beta plays where value was obvious and recovery momentum ruled the game. Herding was last year’s contest.
This year a more discriminating longer-term analytical approach is warranted. In order to separate the winners from the losers, investors assess how investments look in terms of balance sheets (rather than swimwear) and capability of generating sustainable returns against a changing backdrop.
Of course perceptions of beauty may change. For instance, what once seemed exotic and risky choices, i.e. the emerging markets, may now, in a world of fiscal stress and increased political intervention, be the more attractive options. In markets distorted by politics and regulatory actions we may see some strange-looking winners.
Everything has its price (valuation matters!)
Over a market cycle valuation metrics such as earnings momentum and dividend yield are key drivers of share price performance. Close to turning points in the cycle, identifying good value or the appropriate time to sell as prices move away from fundamentals is arguably even more important but investors may struggle in the face of conflicting information.
The cyclical trough is often marked by confusion. Markets are crashing, the media full of stories about company failures, and guidance on earnings prospects is poor or non-existent. This is the time to look for over-sold assets and pick up long-term value. The second dangerous phase is at the top of the cycle when everyone buys the story of the day irrespective of underlying value, whether it is TMT companies, residential property or Chinese stocks. This phase may be prolonged if a bubble develops. The resultant adjustment period can be brutal until valuation reasserts itself.
Frances Hudson, Global Thematic Strategist, Standard Life Investments
This was first featured in Shares Magazine, Volume 12 Issue 10, on Thursday 11th March 2010.
