FX&MM Magazine – Currency Wrap
15 February 2010
Some commentators are concerned about the possibility of default by some European governments, potentially forcing a member to leave the EMU. A sizeable build-up of government debt in parts of the Euro-zone raises this default risk. Moreover, a similar growth in current account deficits in these countries forces a reliance on “imported capital” to fund bank and public debt. Finally, some members are becoming increasingly uncompetitive as their unit labour costs are growing in an unsustainable manner.
In our view, the probability of a member leaving the Euro is very low as EMU is a political construction. Contagion would become rife if one country was forced out of EMU. Hence, it is expected that eventually there will be sufficient funds, from a range of European institutions, to help countries adjust over time to the pressures they face.
Nevertheless we remain negative on the Euro currency for the foreseeable future. We already expected European growth rates to underperform and we note, even after the recent events, that the common currency remains significantly over-valued.
Ken Dickson, Investment Director – Money Markets and Foreign Exchange, Standard Life Investments
This article was first published in the March 2010 edition of FX&MM.
